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Written date: March 29th, 2024

1. At present, Brazilian soybeans are listed on the market, and Brazilian soybeans will enter the peak of export in the second quarter. The inventory of American soybeans increased year-on-year, and the soybean planting area in 24/25 is expected to increase compared with 83.6 million acres in 23/24. The increase in the planting area of old crops and new crops will adjust the loose pattern of new soybeans.

2. After Ramadan, palm oil export demand was replaced by competitive oils and fats due to price influence, or faced with weakness again, and output resumed to increase. It is expected that Malaysia’s inventory will turn from decline to increase.

3. It is estimated that imported soybeans will arrive in Hong Kong in April and 10.5 million tons in May. In the second quarter, supply will turn loose, and soybean oil inventories will stop falling and rebound. At present, the oil factory has abundant rapeseed stocks, and the vegetable oil depot is at a high level in the past five years. With the continuous arrival of imported rapeseed and vegetable oil in Hong Kong, the imported vegetable oil stocks remain at a high level.

Risk warning:Shipment delay of imported oil

In the first quarter, oil and fat fluctuated strongly, driven by strong palm oil. Palm oil 05 contract rose by 14.7%, while soybean oil and vegetable oil were suppressed by the expectation of loose fundamentals, and the increase was much lower than that of palm oil, only 3% and 1.5%. The spread between bean vegetable oil and palm oil continued to shrink.

The decline of palm oil production in Southeast Asia during the seasonal production reduction period provided support for the market. The January flood caused the palm oil production to drop more than expected, and the stock of horse palm oil fell more than expected. In the first half of January, palm oil at home and abroad rose sharply, which led to the rebound of bean vegetable oil. However, CBOT American beans showed a continuous downward trend, and the main contract continued to decline, falling below the 1200-cent mark. The pressure of high soybean yield from South America continued to be released. With the harvest of Brazilian soybeans, the premium of Brazilian soybeans was greatly reduced, and the import cost of soybeans dropped significantly, dragging down the stagflat Palm oil production continued to decline in February. Although the export was less than expected, the output fell more than the demand, and the excessive decline in inventory supported the price. Then in March, the Kuala Lumpur meeting delegates were generally optimistic about the demand for palm oil in Southeast Asia. Ramadan, which began in mid-March, delayed the resumption of palm oil production, while the holiday demand stimulated the continuous decline in inventory and supported the continuous rise of horse palm. Domestically, palm oil imports were low in the first quarter, stocks continued to decline, and fewer ships were bought in April and May, which led to the continuous refreshing of palm oil highs, which led to the rise of bean vegetable oil. However, the fundamental supply of bean vegetable oil was expected to be loose, resulting in a lower increase than palm oil, and the price difference between bean vegetable oil and palm oil was upside down. In late March, the market expected that the intended area of US soybean planting and the inventory at the end of the season were generally empty, and the import of soybeans in Hong Kong was huge in the second quarter, and more rapeseed was imported, which led to the pressure correction of bean vegetable oil.

(A) South American soybean centralized listing stage supply pressure

This year, the overall yield of soybeans in South America is high. The USDA estimates that Argentina’s soybean output is 50 million tons, and Brazil’s soybean output is 155 million tons. The output of the two countries is 18 million tons higher than that of last year, but other institutions estimate that Brazil’s soybean output is 145-150 million tons. From the current point of view, it is more likely that USDA will continue to reduce Brazil’s soybean output in the future. At present, Brazilian soybeans are being listed on the market. According to Conab’s harvest progress survey data, as of March 24th, Brazil’s soybean harvest area in 2023/24 has reached 66.3% of the national planting area. With the advancement of soybean harvest, Brazil’s soybean export pace is expected to accelerate seasonally. According to the data of National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC), Brazil’s soybean export in March is estimated to be 13.48 million tons, which is higher than 9.53 million tons in February. In the second quarter, Brazilian soybeans will enter the peak period of export. However, Brazil has increased the soybean blending rate to 14% since March, which will lead to an increase in domestic crushing demand. If soybean production continues to decrease, it will correspondingly squeeze the export share.

According to the report data of USDA, the quarterly inventory of US soybeans in March 2024 was 1.845 billion catties, compared with 1.686 billion catties in the same period last year, and the average market expectation was 1.828 billion catties. The report data slightly exceeded the market expectation. USDA released the planting intention report in March, which showed that the soybean planting area was 86.51 million acres, 990,000 acres lower than the 87.5 million acres announced in the February Outlook Forum report, and the average market expectation was 86.53 million acres, which was in line with market expectations. On the whole, the data of this quarterly report is slightly higher than the market expectation, while the planting area is basically in line with the market expectation, and the marginal adjustment of this report is small. However, compared with the inventory of 1.686 billion catties in March 2023, the soybean planting area in 24/25 is expected to increase compared with 83.6 million acres in 23/24, and the increase in the planting area of old crops and new crops will adjust the loose pattern of new soybeans.

(B) Palm oil into the resumption of production and supply marginal easing.

The traditional production reduction season ended and the production increase cycle entered in March. However, Ramadan from March 12 to April 10 added new variables to increase production, and Malaysian plantations will experience short-term labor shortage and shortened working days. During Ramadan, the production of horse palm is usually reduced or the production is not smooth. At present, the MPOA data shows that the production of horse palm increased by 2.98% from March 1 to 20, and the SPPOMA data shows that the production of horse palm increased by 12.3% from March 1 to 25, which is a sharp contraction compared with the 22.4% increase from January to 20. It is estimated that the overall production of horse palm will further shrink to about 10% in March, that is, the production will increase to about 1.39 million tons.

At present, the spread of international soybean palm, sunflower palm and vegetable palm has been shrinking, and the substitution effect of competitive oil is gradually emerging. The weakening of palm oil price comparison advantage has prompted major demanders to reduce their purchases. In February, the total inventory of vegetable oil ports and channels in India was 2.38 million tons, down 10% from the previous month, down 31% from the same period of last year, and the inventory of palm oil ports was 390,000 tons, down 26% from the previous month. Against the background of low domestic palm oil inventory and boosting demand in Ramadan, there was a demand for replenishment in India, but the oil price difference between beans and palm oil was upside down, and the export growth of horse palm was limited. The export of horse palm shown by shipping agencies increased by 13.77% from March 1 to 20 compared with the previous month. In March, the normal production of horse palm was delayed due to Ramadan, while the holiday boosted the demand for stocking. It is expected that the inventory will continue to fall in March. After Ramadan, the export demand was replaced by competitive oils and fats due to price influence, or faced with weakness again, and the output resumed to increase. It is expected that Malaysia’s inventory will turn from decline to increase.

(C) Short-term and long-term supply of domestic oils and fats is loose.

According to customs data, China imported 390,000 tons of palm oil in January and February, down 37% year-on-year. In recent months, the arrival of palm oil in Hong Kong has decreased, the factory inventory is tight, and some areas have queued for delivery. According to the monitoring of the National Grain and Oil Information Center, on March 26th, the palm oil inventory in coastal areas was 550,000 tons, down 92,000 tons from the previous month and 440,000 tons from the same period last year. At present, the quotations of foreign investors for near-term and long-term contracts all show a strong trend, which leads to the upside-down phenomenon of import profits and the delay in opening the window for buying ships. Therefore, the number of ships imported in the near future is relatively limited. According to Mysteel’s statistics, palm oil arrived in Hong Kong about 150,000 tons in March, less than 150,000 tons in April and less than 200,000 tons in May. Although the price difference between soybean and palm oil has shrunk significantly, the South China factory reduced the blending ratio of blended oil in middle packaging, and replaced palm oil with soybean oil. The downstream only needed to purchase, and the supply and demand of palm oil were weak, and it slowly went to the warehouse in the second quarter.

In February, the profit of domestic imported rapeseed began to turn positive, and enterprises bought more ships for rapeseed. According to the current ship purchase, it is estimated that 480,000 tons of imported rapeseed will arrive in Hong Kong in March, 500,000 tons in April and 420,000 tons in May. At present, the rapeseed inventory in oil plants is abundant. According to the monitoring data of China Grain and Oil Business Network, the total inventory of domestic imported rapeseed was 394,000 tons at the 12th weekend, a decrease of 31,000 tons from 425,000 tons last week and a decrease of 233,000 tons in the same period last At present, the operating rate of rapeseed in oil plants is high, and the output of rapeseed oil is on the high side. The inventory of imported pressed rapeseed oil is 456,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared with last week, which is at a high level in the past five years. With the continuous arrival of imported rapeseed and rapeseed oil in Hong Kong, the inventory of imported rapeseed oil remains high.

According to customs data, the number of imported soybeans in China from January to February 2024 was 13.04 million tons, which was 8.8% lower than the same period of last year, the lowest since the same period of 2019, and the inventory of imported soybeans in domestic oil plants declined. Due to the low arrival of imported soybeans in Hong Kong, the startup of soybeans in oil plants declined, and the startup of soybeans fell to 41.5% in the 12th week, and the inventory of soybean oil continued to decline. As of March 26th, the inventory of soybean oil was 720,000 tons. At present, domestic oil plants have made a lot of profits in purchasing Brazilian soybeans. In March, they purchased 10.56 million tons of soybeans, and in April, they purchased 9.57 million tons. Imported soybeans are estimated to be 10 million tons in Hong Kong in April, and 10.5 million tons in May. In the second quarter, supply turned loose, and soybean oil stocks will stop falling and rebound.

(D) Analysis of demand and influencing factors

Due to the tight supply caused by the decrease of domestic palm oil imports, the spot price of palm oil is higher than that of soybean oil, which leads to the use of soybean oil in middle packaging oil by oil plants in South China. The blending ratio of soybean oil and palm oil changed from 1:9 to 9:1, which led to a decrease in palm oil demand, a significant decrease in palm oil turnover, and an increase in soybean oil replacement demand, and a significant increase in spot turnover. As of the week of March 22nd, the spot and basis turnover of soybean oil rose to 339,000 tons, and the supply of palm oil continued to be on the side in April and May.

Brazil’s soybeans are listed centrally and enter the peak period of export. In April and May, imported soybeans reached 10 million tons in Hong Kong, soybean crushing and soybean oil production in oil plants will return to a high level, and supply will turn loose. In April and May, imported rapeseed bought more ships, and the current vegetable oil inventory was high, and the imported vegetable oil arrived in Hong Kong steadily, which further increased the supply pressure. Palm oil production resumed in the second quarter. However, due to Ramadan in April or the delay in palm oil production, the accumulation of palm oil in the production area may be delayed until May. Domestic palm oil was affected by the upside-down import profit, and the import volume decreased year-on-year. In April, fewer ships were bought. If palm oil production increased in May, the price reduction in the production area gave the domestic profit of buying ships, and palm oil stocks would stop falling and rebound. On the whole, the tight supply of oil in the near future is still supported, and the long-term supply is expected to be loose. In the second quarter, the oil price may turn from strong to weak. However, after the resumption of palm oil production, the market focus will turn to the planting area of American beans. With the spring sowing of American beans, there are great uncertainties in factors such as planting area and weather, and the relationship between the strength of soybean palm oil may change, so we should pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the oil price difference between soybean and palm oil.

From August 27th to 28th, the second EHS Sustainable Development Forum hosted by the Alumni and Development Liaison Office and hosted by the EHS Alumni Association was successfully held. Yan Haifeng, Vice President of our school, attended the meeting and delivered a speech. Li Jianwei, Director of Alumni and Development Liaison Office and Secretary General of Alumni Association, attended the meeting. Wang Zhimei, Deputy Director of Alumni and Development Liaison Office and Deputy Secretary-General of Alumni Association, presided over the opening ceremony of the forum.

At the meeting, Wang Haoshui, former party member and chief engineer of the National Emergency Management Department, Fan Jingguang, director of National Health Commission Occupational Safety and Health Research Center, Zhang Zhimin, former inspector of the Emergency Center of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, Li Chao, president of Gongzhidao Chemical Digital Research Institute, Xue Jie, senior EHS director of Dow Chemical Asia Pacific, Xiao Li, EHS director of BASF Greater China, and Xiu Guangli, secretary of the Party Committee of School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, East China University of Science and Technology, Gao Mengwen, deputy general manager of Shanghai Baofa Huanke Technology Co., Ltd., gave speeches on improving safety leadership and leading the safe development of enterprises, interpreting the 14th Five-Year Plan for the Prevention and Control of Occupational Diseases, sharing typical environmental violations and punishments, thinking and practice of upgrading chemical safety management by digital system, construction of chemical EHS talent echelon, new trends and challenges of EHS, current situation and thinking on the safety management of VOCs governance facilities, and differentiated solutions under the supervision background.

In the online forum on 28th, Tao Guoli, Vice President of Lianhua Technology Co., Ltd., Xu Hong, Senior EHS Project Manager of PPG Asia Pacific, Wu Rongliang, Partner of Jinmao Law Firm, Ma Liqiang, General Manager of Shanghai Yichisi Environmental Technology Co., Ltd., Xu Xinliang, President of EHS Alumni Association of East China University of Science and Technology and Senior EHS Manager of Dow Chemical Asia Pacific, Zhao Kang, Asia Pacific Environment and Restoration Manager of Solvi Investment Co., Ltd., Zhou Jibiao, director of EHS in Asia-Pacific region of Amco (China) Investment Co., Ltd., respectively combined with enterprise practice, discussed and discussed hot and difficult issues such as risk management, accident analysis, safety criminal case analysis, environmental emergency response, integrated management of EHS and enterprise operation, industrial strategic choice of chemical industry and petrochemical industry under the goal of double carbon, and sustainable development of chemical industry, and shared valuable experience, which aroused resonance and thinking.

It is reported that the EHS Industry Alumni Association of East China University of Science and Technology was established in 2010. It is a non-profit organization voluntarily formed by our alumni who are engaged in environmental health and safety (EHS). Since its establishment, it has made positive contributions to the talent training and alumni career development of our alma mater. As a public welfare activity, this forum has attracted wide attention from all walks of life, attracting more than 8,000 industry alumni to participate online and offline.

　　Original title: Learn from history and take the initiative to take responsibility-writing the winter Olympics answer sheet with the first good standard

　　In 85 days, the flame of Beijing Winter Olympics will be lit!

　　In Beijing, which has entered the Games-time system, the construction and renovation of venues have been completed, the "Meet Beijing" test activity is under way, and the epidemic prevention during the Games-time is being integrated with the epidemic prevention in the city … The whole city is making every effort to promote the preparations for the Beijing Winter Olympics, writing the "green, shared, open and clean" winter Olympics answer sheet with the first-class standard, with the hard work of taking the initiative, taking details as the king, and keeping up with China.

　　Dare to be the first to overcome difficulties.

　　After the snow in Chu Qing, the National Stadium "Bird’s Nest" at the northern end of the central axis shines brightly. This stadium, which witnessed an unparalleled summer Olympic Games 13 years ago, has been rebuilt. More than 80 days later, the flame of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics and Paralympic Winter Games will be lit here, and the "Double Olympics Pavilion" will once again become the focus of the world.

　　The city of double Olympics is the only one in the world. "Water-ice conversion" and "ice-ice conversion" … One challenge after another without precedent is before us, and party member is at the forefront of the team to overcome difficulties.

　　"The renovation of the’ Bird’s Nest’ involves 37 projects, with tight time and heavy tasks." Xiang Jun, secretary of the Party Committee of the National Stadium Co., Ltd. said that since the beginning of the project, the company has rapidly deployed elite soldiers and strong generals with party member as the backbone to overcome difficulties.

　　"Yanqing Division has the most challenging track and the most complex venues, and the site selection, construction and organization are unprecedented." Zhang Suzhi, secretary of the Party branch of Yanqing Operation Center of Beijing Winter Olympics Organizing Committee, said. In the site selection stage, party member cadres braved the cold of MINUS 30 degrees and brought their own dry food to climb and explore Xiaohaituo Mountain for hundreds of times for more than 40 days. In the study and education of Party history, the Party branch held a big discussion on topics such as "What to demonstrate in alpine demonstration venues" and "Skills are king". party member worked hard from the discussion, honed their style of work, took the initiative to take responsibility and went all out.

　　Behind the perfect conversion of water and ice in the Water Cube is hard work. During the testing activities, Li Yunfeng, an engineer, and party member in the team rushed to the front line, working 17 hours a day, and making do with the night in the unit before they could go home. Everyone gritted their teeth and insisted, "This is the exemplary role of party member." Li Yunfeng said.

　　Four Summer Olympic competition venues have been rebuilt, ski jumping platforms have been set up in the industrial heritage, the first ice surface made of carbon dioxide has been born in the history of the Olympic Games in the Capital Gymnasium, the "ice ribbon" has become the first intelligent Olympic venue, and the National Aquatics Center has become the only Olympic venue in the world where water and ice can be converted. Many high-tech applications such as artificial intelligence, 5G, Internet of Things and new broadcasting technologies have been applied in the competition venues, and the utilization plan has been throughout the venue construction since the games …

　　The concept of "green, shared, open and clean" is in line with the reform concept of the Olympic Games, contributing to the "China Plan" for the world and being praised by the International Olympic Committee as "a new benchmark for the Olympic Games".

　　Details are king, but it’s not too late.

　　Holding a test match is not only a "prescribed action" in the preparatory work, but also the most direct and effective test of a city’s ability to host the Olympic Games. "Attention to detail is king, and it doesn’t take too long" has become the work requirement for the preparation and guarantee of the competition.

　　Each party branch is established at the forefront of testing activities, pooling everyone’s strength and doing a good job in testing support.

　　A temporary party Committee was set up in Beijing Winter Olympic Village to coordinate the prevention and control of epidemic situation and the operation of venues; Yanqing District has set up six temporary party branches to ensure the winter Olympics, making every effort to do a good job in ensuring the test competition; The National Swimming Center also established the "Ice Cube Youth Commando" with party member Pioneer as the main body …

　　Since mid-September, the Operation Support Command of Chaoyang District of Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Paralympic Winter Games has started the dispatching mechanism. After the official kick-off, the offices under the headquarters and 12 groups "scheduled early and held regular meetings late" every day.

　　Problem-oriented, details are king. How to stay in the hotel more quickly and conveniently, and how to avoid the intersection of "inside the closed loop" and "outside the closed loop" of garbage removal … The details were sorted out, and the matter was solved quickly. Chaoyang Division Command "1 Office and 12 Groups" has sorted out and summarized 24 problems in epidemic prevention, catering, accommodation, transportation and daily security, and all of them have been solved.

　　Shijingshan Shougang Park covers an area of nearly 110,000 square meters, and 652 monitoring points and 495 fire hydrants have to be inspected once every two hours, so the work intensity can be imagined. Li Hongji, the head of security, is an old party member with 21 years’ party experience. He always said, "In the face of difficulties, Communist party member must stand up!" It is because of this responsibility that the team successfully completed the security task again and again.

　　In the "Meet Beijing" test activity, each venue performed perfectly and won praise. Ding Jun, director of the large-scale activities department of the Olympic Park Management Committee, attributed it to the strength drawn from the study and education of party history. "The century-old party history inherits the spirit of hard struggle, the quality of courage to take responsibility, the vitality of ideological emancipation, and the courage to be the first. It is these that give us strength and inspire us to prepare for the decisive battle for the Winter Olympics."

　　Beautiful background benefits the people

　　Let the whole people share the Olympic achievements, which has always been the top priority in the preparations for the Beijing Winter Olympics.

　　The "Bird’s Nest" is about 100 kilometers northwest, and the most beautiful Winter Olympic City is blooming. Last weekend’s snowfall, the grand scene of "Haituo Albert Venn Dicey" appeared, waiting for the grand event.

　　Four ecological corridors with a total area of 100,000 mu, namely Guihe Ecological Recreation Corridor, Guanting Reservoir Ecological Reservoir Waterfront Belt, Beishan Ecological Recreation Sightseeing Belt and Longqingxia Downstream Forest Park, are dotted with six forest and wetland parks with a per capita green area of 39 square meters …

　　Ecological priority, resource conservation and environmental friendliness are laying a beautiful China background for the Beijing Winter Olympics.

　　At the end of September, 2021, Shijingshan Winter Olympics Park opened, becoming the largest urban park in the west of Beijing. It was not only dotted with cultural relics and historical sites, but also built the first fully enclosed marathon track. "The more green spaces are built at the doorstep, the more beautiful the parks are, like a big garden!" Liu Lei, a citizen, said that the "Winter Olympics Avenue" has also been built on Fushi Road, where he goes to work, and it has become the most pleasant thing to enjoy the scenery while driving.

　　Since the preparations for the Winter Olympics, snow on ice has become a new fashion. Yanqing farmers set up a ski team and went into primary and secondary schools to take the children to have fun; The grassy ditch in Shijingshan Gaojing community was transformed into a 5,000-square-meter snow field; Nearly 100 after-school ice and snow clubs have been set up in primary and secondary schools in Chaoyang, with 200,000 students participating in ice and snow sports and learning about the Winter Olympics. After the Beijing Winter Olympics, the "Ice Cube" and "Ice Ribbon" will also become a paradise for citizens to experience ice and snow sports …

　　More than 80 days later, during the Spring Festival, the "Double Olympic City" will turn a new page.

　　Beijing, presented to the world, is not only a "simple, safe and wonderful" winter Olympics answer sheet, but also a winter Olympics answer sheet to enhance the level of urban development and people’s happy life. The Beijing Winter Olympics will also leave a deep impression and good memories for the whole world.

　　Beijing, get ready!

　　Together to the future! (Zhu Songmei)

The quoted interest rate (LPR) in the loan market ushered in the first downward adjustment in 2024, and the varieties with a term of more than five years dropped by 25 basis points, while the varieties with a term of one year remained unchanged. Industry analysts believe that the downward trend of LPR will further drive down the real loan interest rate and promote the steady decline of social financing costs. Since August 20, 2019, the quoted interest rate (LPR) of the loan market has been quoted and calculated according to the new formation mechanism. According to the historical trend chart of LPR varieties released by China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, 25 basis points is the largest decline of 5-year LPR since August 2019.

According to the news of WeChat WeChat official account "People’s Bank of China" on February 20th, the People’s Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that on February 20th, 2024, the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) was 3.45% for one year and 3.95% for five years or more. The above LPR is valid until the next LPR release.

Previously, on January 22nd, the People’s Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the quoted interest rate (LPR) of the loan market on January 22nd, 2024 was 3.45% for one year and 4.2% for five years or more.

Compared with the LPR published in January, the one-year LPR remained unchanged in February, and the LPR over five years was lowered by 25 basis points.

Historical trend chart of LPR varieties

Double "asymmetric" decline

Previously, on February 18th, the People’s Bank of China launched a 105 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation and a 500 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation. The 7-day reverse repurchase rate and the 1-year MLF rate were 1.80% and 2.50% respectively, which remained unchanged from the previous period. Analysts had previously predicted that the LPR would be lowered under the background that the operating interest rate of MLF remained unchanged, and the decline of LPR over five years was greater than that of LPR over one year.

Why is there "asymmetry" between MLF and LPR?

Everbright said that LPR is formed by adding points based on MLF interest rate, and the range of adding points mainly depends on the quotation bank’s own capital cost, market supply and demand, risk premium and other factors.

National business daily, citing the analysis of insiders, thinks that the relationship between LPR and MLF interest rate should be further diluted in the future. Compared with MLF interest rate, whether the financing cost of real economic entities can be reduced is more important for economic growth, and the actual indication of LPR in this respect is stronger.

"LPR has become the main reference benchmark for loan interest rate pricing." Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that LPR is formed by quotations from 20 commercial banks, and there are open rules for the selection of quotation banks, the quotation time and the final published calculation method, which are quoted once a month on the 20th. When quoting, quotation banks will adjust their quotations according to their own capital costs, market supply and demand, risk premium and other factors. The market generally believes that LPR, as the benchmark of bank loan pricing, is directly related to the changes of financing costs and financial expenditures of enterprises and residents, and business entities pay more attention to LPR and reflect it more sensitively. The downward trend of LPR will also help to further reduce the actual loan interest rate and promote the steady decline of social financing costs.

At the same time, whether LPR can decline depends on whether the bank’s capital cost can go down, and the deposit cost is an important factor affecting the bank’s capital cost. Major banks have cut deposit interest rates four times since 2022, which will further open up the space for LPR to go down and banks to make profits.

Everbright fixed income also said that in recent days, the bank’s capital cost has fallen by a large margin, which will help promote the downward trend of LPR. On the one hand, in September and December last year, major banks actively lowered the deposit interest rate according to their own business needs and market supply and demand. On the other hand, since January 25th this year, the interest rates of refinancing and rediscounting for supporting agriculture and supporting small enterprises have been lowered by 0.25% respectively, and the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions has been lowered by 0.5% since February 5th this year. On the other hand, the cost of issuing active debt instruments of banks has also dropped significantly. On February 9th, the interest rates of 1Y AAA CD and 5Y commercial bank bonds were lower than those of 33bp and 30bp at the end of November last year, respectively.

Everbright Finance pointed out that in retrospect, the MLF-LPR linkage mechanism does not mean that the two need to be adjusted equally. MLF "stays put" and LPR is lowered separately. In September 2019, December 2021 and May 2022, the MLF interest rate remained unchanged for three times, while the LPR spread was lowered. Among them, in September 2019 and December 2021, the 1Y-LPR was lowered by 5bp alone, and in May 2022, the 5Y-LPR was lowered by 15bp alone.

Observing the commonness of the above three LPR quotation adjustments, it is found that the liquidity environment is relatively loose during the period, and there are "wide currency" operations such as RRR reduction in the month or in the early stage, which pushes down the capital cost of the bank’s debt side, thus providing operational space for LPR downward adjustment. This time, the MLF maintained a "price level", mainly considering the RMB exchange rate constraint.

Dongfang Jincheng also pointed out that the MLF operating interest rate continued to "stay put" in February, which may be related to factors such as the RRR cut in the month and the expected downward adjustment of LPR quotation. In addition, in November and December, 2023, major domestic banks lowered the deposit interest rate, which helped to push down the LPR quotation and replaced the MLF interest rate reduction to some extent.

Another "asymmetry" is the 1-year and 5-year LPR. The last asymmetric decline of LPR was in August 2023. At that time, the one-year period declined, while the five-year period remained unchanged.

Compared with the data in September 2019, before this downward adjustment, the 5-year LPR was only lowered by 65 basis points, which was lower than the cumulative decline of 75 basis points in the 1-year LPR, so there is room for unilateral downward adjustment in the 5-year period.

China securities journal believes that another reason is that asymmetric interest rate cuts may be more in line with the demands of stable real estate and stable economy. "LPR over five years is the pricing benchmark of individual housing loans. The decline of LPR over five years will further reduce the interest expenses of residential mortgages and promote the stable development of the real estate market." Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian, said.

When will the mortgage drop?

According to national business daily, according to the requirements of the relevant announcement issued by the central bank, financial institutions should negotiate with customers of floating interest rate loans from March 1, 2020, and choose one of two interest rate pricing methods: fixed interest rate or floating interest rate, that is, LPR+ plus points (the points can be negative). Under normal circumstances, a fixed interest rate is chosen, and the annual repayment rate remains unchanged until all loans are paid off; However, if the floating interest rate is selected, the mortgage interest rate will be priced by LPR as the pricing benchmark+basis point (1 basis point is 0.01%).

It should be noted that after the LPR adjustment, the user’s mortgage interest rate is not adjusted immediately. Generally speaking, the repricing date of mortgage interest rate is January 1st of each year or the loan issuing date (different banks have different policies, so users can choose when signing loan agreements). Therefore, for the existing mortgage, the new interest rate will be obtained according to the latest LPR quoted interest rate and the basis point agreed in the contract on the interest rate repricing date, and will be implemented in the next cycle.

Source | Observer Network

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Notice of the People’s Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on doing a good job in financial services for epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development

Yinfa [2022] No.92

At the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic, in accordance with the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, the People’s Bank of China, together with relevant departments, timely issued the Notice on Further Strengthening Financial Support for the Prevention and Control of Pneumonia in novel coronavirus (Yinfa [2020] No.29), proposing 30 measures such as monetary credit and financial services, which provided strong support for the prevention and control of the epidemic and the recovery and development of the real economy. At present, affected by the epidemic situation and domestic and foreign factors, China’s economic development faces triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shock and expected weakening. In order to further improve the financial support for epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, relevant matters are hereby notified as follows:

First, give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy in aggregate and structure, and increase financial support for industries, enterprises and people affected by the epidemic.

(1) Maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity. Through open market operations, standing loan facilities, refinancing, rediscounting and other monetary policy tools, we will provide sufficient liquidity, guide financial institutions to expand loan lending, and enhance the stability of total credit growth. Give full play to the reform efficiency of quotation interest rate in the loan market, promote the steady decline of comprehensive financing costs of enterprises, and promote financial institutions to make reasonable profits to the real economy. Branches of the People’s Bank of China may appropriately increase the tolerance of deposit reserve assessment for financial institutions substantially affected by the epidemic.

(two) to provide differentiated financial services for industries that are greatly affected by the epidemic. Make good use of small-scale re-loans to support agriculture and rediscount policy, increase the amount of small-scale re-loans to support agriculture in a timely manner, and guide local corporate financial institutions to increase their support for contact service industries such as accommodation, catering, wholesale and retail, cultural tourism and other promising industries that are temporarily affected by the epidemic.

Strengthen information sharing with the competent departments of commerce, cultural tourism, transportation and other industries, organize various forms of government-bank-enterprise docking activities, help banks improve their customer acquisition, risk assessment and control capabilities, and develop chattel mortgage and credit loan products according to the characteristics of enterprises.

(3) Increase financial support for trapped market entities such as small and micro enterprises. Give full play to the role of universal micro-credit support tools. From January 1, 2022 to the end of June, 2023, we will provide incentive funds according to 1% of the increase in the balance of universal micro-credit loans of local corporate financial institutions, and encourage financial institutions to stabilize the stock of universal micro-credit loans and expand the increase. Incorporate the Pratt & Whitney Small enterprise credit loans Support Program into the management of small-scale re-lending for supporting agriculture. Since 2022, the re-lending amount of 400 billion yuan originally used to support Pratt & Whitney small-scale credit loans will continue to be used in a rolling way, and it can be further increased if necessary, so as to guide financial institutions to increase the proportion of credit loans and first-time borrowers.

Financial institutions should promote the model of active credit granting and loan repayment, so as to better meet the needs of small and micro enterprises. It is necessary to refine the requirements of internal fund transfer pricing, bad tolerance, due diligence and exemption, performance appraisal, optimize the allocation of credit resources, strengthen the empowerment of financial technology, and accelerate the improvement of financial service capabilities of small and micro enterprises. According to the principle of marketization, we should actively support trapped enterprises to resist the impact of the epidemic by providing medium and long-term loans, lowering interest rates, extending or renewing loans, and not blindly limit loans, draw loans or cut off loans. It is necessary to actively connect the credit information of enterprises in different fields such as finance, government affairs, public utilities and commerce related to the credit information platform, alleviate the information asymmetry between banks and enterprises, and improve financing efficiency.

(4) Improve the quality and efficiency of financial services for key areas and people in distress. Financial institutions should improve the financial supply level in areas seriously affected by the epidemic by adjusting regional financing policies, internal fund transfer pricing, and implementing differentiated performance appraisal methods.

For those who are hospitalized or isolated due to infection in COVID-19, those who need isolated observers for epidemic prevention and control, and those who have temporarily lost their sources of income due to the epidemic, financial institutions should optimize their credit policies in time, distinguish between repayment ability and repayment willingness, and distinguish between short-term repayment ability and medium-and long-term repayment ability affected by the epidemic, and flexibly adjust their repayment plans by reasonably delaying repayment time, extending loan term and delaying repayment of principal. For taxi drivers, online shop owners, truck drivers and other flexible employment subjects, financial institutions can increase their business loan support according to individual industrial and commercial households and small and micro enterprise owners.

(5) Providing convenient financial market services. Financial market infrastructure should further optimize the issuance, trading, clearing, settlement and other services, provide a variety of service channels, adjust some business development methods, and strengthen service guarantee. China Association of Inter-bank Market Dealers and Inter-bank Market Clearing House Co., Ltd. should make use of the "green channel" established in the early stage to simplify business processes, moderately relax the requirements of information disclosure standards and increase support for bond issuing enterprises that are greatly affected by the epidemic.

(6) Ensuring the smooth flow of basic financial services. Strengthen cash management to ensure cash supply and cash safety and hygiene. Ensure the smooth operation of payment and clearing, liberalize the business limit of micropayment system as needed, extend the operation time of large-value payment system and central bank accounting data centralized system, and increase the guarantee of electronic payment services.

When necessary, financial institutions should handle the business of approving loans for enterprises by working in the nearest outlets and holding video conferences. It is necessary to effectively protect the rights and interests related to public credit investigation, and continue to implement the relevant provisions that overdue loans can be submitted without overdue records. Smooth online consultation and complaint handling channels for financial consumers.

It is necessary to establish a cooperative working mechanism of finance-taxation-treasury-bank, ensure the smooth channels of fund remittance, and ensure the timely disbursement of funds for epidemic prevention and control. The state treasury at all levels should implement the policy of value-added tax deduction and tax refund to help enterprises bail out. Smooth the channels for the disbursement and refund of tax refund funds, effectively ensure that tax refund funds reach market participants in a timely, accurate and safe manner, and promote market participants to enjoy policy dividends as soon as possible.

Second, give play to the role of finance in smoothing the circulation of the national economy, and do a good job in supporting the real economy policy by finance.

(seven) to do a good job in food security and financial guarantee for the production and marketing of important agricultural products. Make good use of the tools of refinancing and rediscounting to support agriculture, increase the amount of refinancing in a timely manner, and guide local corporate financial institutions to increase their support for agriculture-related entities. Differentiated credit support measures will be formulated around the whole industrial chain such as spring ploughing, grain circulation, storage and processing. Give play to the role of policy banks and ensure the supply of credit funds for central grain reserves in a timely manner. Encourage financial institutions to participate in grain market acquisition and actively meet the financial needs of acquisition and processing. Financial institutions should increase credit for the production, purchase, sale and processing of important agricultural products such as soybeans and oilseeds, and strengthen financial support for tackling key agricultural core technologies such as seed sources.

(eight) do a good job in financial services for the supply of energy such as coal. Optimize and support the special refinancing for clean and efficient use of coal, reasonably meet the needs of coal safety production and construction, power generation enterprises to buy coal, coal reserves and other fields, and ensure the stable supply of energy such as electricity and coal. Grasp the implementation of carbon emission reduction support tools, increase support for the transformation and upgrading of large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases and surrounding coal-fired power, and support the economic transformation to green and low carbon while ensuring the safety of energy supply.

(9) Increase financial support for the smooth circulation of logistics and shipping. Financial institutions should actively follow up and effectively meet the financing needs of transportation enterprises. Open up a "green channel" for transportation logistics enterprises that undertake epidemic prevention and emergency transportation tasks, optimize the credit approval process, and provide flexible and convenient financial services. For transport logistics enterprises and truck drivers who have temporary difficulties in repaying loans due to the epidemic, support financial institutions to scientifically and reasonably extend and renew loans. It is necessary to make good use of civil aviation emergency loans and other tools, and take measures to increase credit support for airlines and airports.

(ten) to strengthen the financial support of the core enterprises in the industrial chain supply chain. The establishment of scientific and technological innovation re-loans, to provide re-loan support for qualified scientific and technological innovation loans, and to guide financial institutions to increase their support for scientific and technological development and technological transformation of enterprises. Establish a credit and bond financing docking mechanism to guide financial institutions to quickly respond to the financing needs of the core of the industrial chain and supporting enterprises. Standardize the development of supply chain finance business, play the role of financial instruments such as supply chain bills and accounts receivable financing service platform, and support the financing of supply chain enterprises.

(eleven) increase financial support for effective investment. Development and policy banks should increase financial support for key investment projects in combination with their own business scope. Financial institutions should take the initiative to connect with major projects, increase support for projects that benefit people’s livelihood, short-board projects, fifth-generation mobile communication (5G), industrial internet, data centers and other new infrastructure construction in the fields of water conservancy, transportation, pipe network and municipal infrastructure, and promote the start of new projects as soon as possible to realize the physical workload. It is necessary to reasonably purchase local government bonds and support local governments to moderately advance infrastructure investment. Under the premise of controllable risks and compliance with laws and regulations, the reasonable financing needs of financing platform companies should be guaranteed according to the principle of marketization, and loans should not be blindly drawn, pressed or stopped to ensure the smooth implementation of projects under construction. Do a good job in financial support for private investment, government and social capital cooperation. The proportion of new loans from financial institutions to provinces (regions) with slow credit growth should increase steadily.

(twelve) actively support the healthy development of private enterprises. Adhere to the "two unwavering", and treat the state-owned economy and the private economy equally in financial policies such as loans and bond financing policies. Encourage financial institutions to build long-term cooperative relations with private enterprises, set annual service targets for private enterprises, fully meet the reasonable financial needs of the private economy, and further increase the proportion of private enterprise loans newly issued.

Give play to the leading role of the national financing guarantee fund, encourage qualified places to set up special funds or credit guarantee funds for loan risk compensation of private enterprises, and focus on providing credit enhancement services for first loans, reloans and renewals. Improve the financing support mechanism for private enterprise bonds and encourage financial institutions to increase investment in private enterprise bonds.

(13) Improve financial services in the housing sector. It is necessary to adhere to the positioning of "the house is for living, not for speculation", focus on the goal of "stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations", implement differentiated housing credit policies according to the city’s policies, and reasonably determine the minimum down payment ratio and minimum loan interest rate requirements for commercial personal housing loans within its jurisdiction, so as to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers and promote the stable and healthy development of the local real estate market.

Financial institutions should distinguish project risks from enterprise group risks, increase support for high-quality projects, do not blindly lend, cut off loans, and suppress loans, and do not engage in "one size fits all" to keep real estate development loans stable and orderly. Commercial banks and financial asset management companies should do a good job in financial services for mergers and acquisitions of key real estate enterprise risk disposal projects, carry out M&A loan business in a safe and orderly manner, increase financing support for M&A bonds, and actively provide financial advisory services for mergers and acquisitions.

On the basis of risk control, financial institutions should moderately increase support such as liquidity loans to meet the reasonable financing needs of construction enterprises, and do not blindly lend, cut off loans or pressure loans to maintain the continuous and stable financing of construction enterprises.

(fourteen) to guide the platform enterprises to carry out inclusive finance business in accordance with the law. On the basis of promoting the standardized and healthy development of online financial services of platform enterprises, we will give full play to the positive role of financial services of platform enterprises. Support platform enterprises to use Internet technology, optimize scene-based online financing products, and provide non-contact financial services to platform merchants and consumers. Encourage platform enterprises to give full play to their advantages in customer acquisition, data, risk control and technology, and increase support for the first loan and credit loan in the areas of agriculture, rural areas and farmers. Guide platform enterprises to steadily reduce the level of interest and fees, provide deferred debt service for loan customers affected by the epidemic, and maximize the benefits to enterprises and the people. Supervise platform enterprises to standardize business cooperation with financial institutions, empower financial institutions to accelerate digital transformation, and improve the efficiency and coverage of financial services.

(fifteen) to strengthen financial services to key consumer areas and new citizen groups. We will set up special refinancing loans for inclusive pension, provide refinancing support for eligible inclusive pension loans, and increase financial support for inclusive pension institutions. Guide financial institutions to standardize the development of consumer credit products and services, and increase support for medical and health care, old-age care, cultural tourism, new consumption, green consumption, county rural consumption and other fields. Encourage financial institutions to enrich large-scale consumer financial products such as automobiles to meet the demand for reasonable consumption funds.

Financial institutions should make good use of the business guarantee loan policy, enrich the supply of credit products around the entrepreneurial form, income characteristics and capital needs of new citizens, reduce the financing cost of new citizens, and stimulate the entrepreneurial employment vitality of new citizens. Actively innovate financial products and services for new citizens’ consumption, vocational skills training, children’s education, health insurance, old-age security, housing and other fields, and enhance the equality and convenience of basic financial services.

Third, optimize the handling of foreign exchange and cross-border RMB business to promote the steady development of foreign trade exports.

(sixteen) to improve the level of trade facilitation. We will promote the facilitation policy of foreign exchange receipts and payments of high-quality enterprises to the whole country, steadily carry out a pilot project of RMB settlement facilitation of trade and investment at a higher level, and encourage banks to include more high-quality small and medium-sized enterprises in the scope of facilitation policies. Further broaden the settlement channels, support qualified non-bank payment institutions and banks to provide efficient and low-cost cross-border fund settlement services for cross-border electronic commerce, foreign trade integrated services and other market entities related to new trade formats by trading electronic information.

(seventeen) to facilitate enterprises to carry out cross-border financing. Support qualified high-tech and specialized small and medium-sized enterprises to carry out pilot projects of foreign debt facilitation quota. Further facilitate enterprises to borrow foreign debts, and support non-financial enterprises to share a foreign debt account for multiple foreign debts. Support enterprises to apply for foreign debt registration online. Eligible non-financial enterprises in the pilot areas can directly handle foreign exchange registration of foreign debts and other capital projects in banks according to regulations.

Domestic foreign exchange loans with trade and export background are allowed to be used for settlement of foreign exchange, and enterprises should repay them with trade and export proceeds in principle. If an enterprise fails to collect foreign exchange on schedule due to special circumstances and there is no foreign exchange fund to repay domestic foreign exchange loans with trade and export background, the lending bank may go through the formalities of purchasing foreign exchange for the enterprise in accordance with regulations. Financial institutions should actively innovate trade financial products, improve the service level of trade financing, and provide necessary financial support for enterprises’ import and export trade.

(eighteen) improve the exchange rate risk management services of enterprises. Financial institutions should promptly respond to the exchange rate hedging needs of foreign trade enterprises and other market entities, support enterprises to expand cross-border RMB settlement, optimize the management and services of foreign exchange derivatives business, and reduce the cost of hedging. Encourage qualified areas to strengthen cooperation between government, banks and enterprises, explore and improve the cost sharing mechanism of exchange rate hedging, expand the government financing guarantee system to provide enterprises with trade financing and exchange rate hedging business guarantees, and enhance the ability of enterprises to cope with exchange rate fluctuations. China Foreign Exchange Trading Center exempts small and medium-sized enterprises from handling fees related to foreign exchange derivatives transactions in the inter-bank foreign exchange market.

(nineteen) optimize the cross-border business process and services. To further improve the digitalization level of cross-border business, banks can provide cross-border settlement services through online and paperless methods such as reviewing electronic documents. Banks should improve the efficiency of cross-border collection and payment under the current account of enterprises. Encourage banks to enrich RMB investment and financing products and facilitate enterprises to use RMB in foreign economic and trade activities and international cooperation.

(twenty) increase the support of export credit insurance. Give play to the role of export credit insurance in enhancing credit guarantee, guide insurance institutions to provide financial services to small and medium-sized micro-foreign trade enterprises, and further improve the efficiency of insurance claims. Deepen the four-way cooperation between government, insurance, banks and enterprises, provide richer cross-border trade background information and more convenient verification services through the application scenario of "export credit insurance policy financing" of cross-border financial service platform, accurately serve foreign trade enterprises, and expand the scale of policy financing.

(twenty-one) to enhance the convenience of investors’ cross-border investment and financing. Promote unified access standards for inter-bank and exchange bond markets, simplify the market entry process, and improve the fund management of foreign investors investing in the domestic bond market. Optimize the management of funds for issuing bonds (panda bonds) in China by overseas institutions, and domestic affiliated enterprises of panda bond issuers can borrow relevant panda bond funds according to the principle of actual needs. Further facilitate qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII) and RMB qualified foreign institutional investors (RQFII) to handle the registration of domestic securities and futures investment funds.

Fourth, strengthen the party’s leadership and enhance the long-term sustainability of policies and the effect of policy propaganda.

(22) Give full play to the leading role of Party building. The People’s Bank of China, all units in the foreign exchange bureau system and all financial institutions should improve their political stance, unify their thoughts and actions with the decision-making and deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhere to the principle of putting people first and life first, earnestly regard the overall prevention and control of epidemic situation and economic and social development as a major political task at present, strengthen organizational leadership, implement relevant policies, and do their best to provide financial services.

(23) Strengthen the sustainability of financial support. Financial institutions should adhere to the principles of marketization and rule of law, comprehensively consider factors such as profit, provision and write-off, independently review loans, make independent decisions, take risks at their own risk, and continue to do a good job in financial support. It is necessary to guard against moral hazard, strengthen the monitoring of capital flow and risk, and ensure that enterprises use funds legally and rationally. All units of the People’s Bank of China and the foreign exchange bureau system should solve the pain and difficulty of policy landing, actively respond to the reasonable demands of financial institutions and market entities, and improve the long-term mechanism for policy landing. It is necessary to increase policy propaganda through the media and the Internet to ensure that policies benefit market players in a timely manner.

China People’s Bank State Administration of Foreign Exchange

April 18, 2022

On March 27th, at the sub-forum of "AIGC (Generative Artificial Intelligence) Changing the World" of the 2024 annual meeting of Boao Forum for Asia, China Academy of Engineering, Professor Tsinghua University, Zhang Yaqin, Dean of Tsinghua University Intelligent Industry Research Institute (AIR), Stuart Russell, author of "Artificial Intelligence: Modern Methods", professor of computer science department of University of California, Berkeley, researcher of Institute of Automation of China Academy of Sciences, expert of United Nations artificial intelligence senior advisory body, and many other experts.

Experts believe that at present, artificial intelligence is still the "fifth kilometer" of the 42-kilometer marathon, and everyone has a chance. The future must be the integration of artificial intelligence and machine intelligence. Of course, the risk is great, so we must face up to the risk. If it is not guided and controlled, this risk will turn into a risk of survival.

Zhang Yaqin: Artificial intelligence is still the "fifth kilometer" of the 42 km marathon.

At the scene of the sub-forum, Zhang Yaqin talked about the relationship between the big model and the generative AI. He thought that one is technology and the other is ability, because with the pre-trained, super-large-scale and self-monitoring big model, the generative AI (artificial intelligence) can have such high energy.

Regarding the trend of the big model, Zhang Yaqin said, firstly, it is multi-modal, and secondly, the big model of artificial intelligence is moving towards autonomous intelligence, which can make goals, plan tasks, make paths, complete schemes and code itself. The third is edge intelligence. Now the big model is mainly in the cloud, and it will go to mobile phones, PCs, robots, cars and so on in the future. "The most important thing is that the whole world is now moving towards the physical world and the biological world. Therefore, generative AI can not only carry out speech recognition, face recognition and image recognition, but also create and generate, not only text, images and videos, but also codes, drugs, mathematical formulas and physical equations. Therefore, generative AI will bring about tremendous technological and paradigm changes."

However, Zhang Yaqin believes that there are some risks in the change. "Of course, I am an optimist. I think human beings have two kinds of wisdom, one is the wisdom of inventing new technologies, and the other is the wisdom of guiding the development of technologies. Therefore, we can manage while developing, but we must think of governance while innovating and developing."

In view of the future development of AI, Zhang Yaqin believes that elements, computing power, algorithms, data and talents are all important, but in the long run, talents are the most important.

Zhang Yaqin believes that at present, artificial intelligence is still the "fifth kilometer" of the 42km marathon, and everyone has a chance. The future must be the integration of artificial intelligence and machine intelligence. Of course, the risk is great, so we must face up to the risk. If it is not guided and controlled, this risk will turn into a risk of survival.

Stuart Russell: Learning AI system is the direction of efforts.

In the sub-forum, Stuart Russell put forward his views on the development path of AI and the competition and cooperation between China and the United States.

Stuart Russell said that the next generation of GPT5, people may find that its training materials are ten times as much as before, but it also means the end of data, and there is no more data in the universe. At this time, if there is no real universal intelligence, human beings must look for different directions. "I don’t think synthetic data can change this problem, because synthetic data is not a real number, and it will not make the system more capable."

What are the possible new directions? Stuart Russell mentioned that by combining probability theory with programming language, we can use expression language to learn new concepts. So far, this technology has not been developed like the big language model, and more human intervention is needed to create a structural model. "Let AI system learn and produce products like human beings. At the same time, human beings can understand its internal operating mechanism, which is the direction of our efforts."

When talking about the concurrence of AI between China and the United States, Stuart Russell said that competition is benign and the statement of zero-sum game is very wrong. If AI is safe and can benefit human beings, even more powerful than human beings, many people will benefit from it. From this perspective, competition is meaningless. The core issue is how human beings can coexist with technology safely.

Ceng Yi: Super intelligent artificial intelligence should be super altruistic.

In the sub-forum, Ceng Yi talked about the future development direction of AI and his views on AI competition between China and the United States. Ceng Yi said that the current AI seems to be close to the so-called AIGC, but in fact there is no relationship between the two.

Ceng Yi believes that what we must do is to bring the real artificial intelligence to the world and serve the world, and at the same time, to study the possible risks. "Artificial intelligence evolves very fast, and the speed of human learning from history and nature is too slow. If human beings don’t reflect, it is not artificial intelligence but human beings who bring catastrophic risks to human beings, because human beings have not learned how to get along with ecology in the evolution of hundreds of millions of years. When there is intelligence with a higher level of intelligence than human beings in the ecology, that is the greatest risk for human beings."

However, Ceng Yi is still optimistic about the future. He believes that the artificial intelligence of super intelligence should be super altruistic, but the question is whether the artificial intelligence constructed by human beings is super altruistic now, and whether human beings can embed the law of nature evolution into artificial intelligence, so that it can become an extension of natural evolution and pay attention to other life, instead of bringing disastrous consequences to other life and the world. This is the direction that artificial intelligence technology research and future human evolution need to evolve together.

In view of the competition of AI between China and the United States, Ceng Yi believes that neither the United States nor China can really lead the future artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence is a basic and enabling technology, and the world is big enough for China, the United States and more countries to find opportunities in building infrastructure and applications. The more critical question is how the whole world can unite to construct safer, more reliable and more credible artificial intelligence for human prosperity, which is the goal of more unity in the world.

Beijing News Shell Finance reporter Pan Yichun

Editor Yue Caizhou

Proofread Sissi

　　CCTV News:According to the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, during his visit to Singapore and Malaysia, Member the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and Foreign Minister Wang Yi exchanged views with the politicians of the two countries on the current situation in the South China Sea and clarified China’s position.

　　Wang Yi said that over the years, with the joint efforts of China and ASEAN, the situation in the South China Sea has achieved overall stability and provided a good environment for their respective development. Some forces, such as the United States, are afraid that the South China Sea will not be chaotic and continue to make waves in this sea area. Recently, the Ren’ai Reef dispute has been used to stir up trouble between China and the Philippines, encouraging confrontation and undermining peace and tranquility in the South China Sea, so as to serve the geopolitical strategy of the United States itself. China hopes that regional countries will keep necessary vigilance against those behind the scenes and take the leading role in maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea into their own hands. China has repeatedly stated that it is willing to settle its differences with the Philippines through bilateral dialogue. Greece and the Philippines abide by the consensus reached in the past, cherish the mutual trust accumulated in the improvement of bilateral relations, move in line with China as soon as possible, and seek effective ways to control the maritime situation.

　　Wang Yi emphasized that China is willing to work with ASEAN countries to accelerate the consultation on the "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea" and strive to reach effective and substantial regional rules in line with international law including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea at an early date. We believe that China and ASEAN countries are fully capable and wise to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea and build our common home.

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